*Updated 5/6*
Once again, Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings based on tweets did the best job of picking the top horses in the Kentucky Derby.
Doe-Anderson analyzed tweets and developed a ranking system for all horses in the Derby. Leading up to the big race, the eventual winner, long shot Country House, was ranked first or second in our system. Shortly before post-time, Country House’s final ranking position was fifth – far ahead of the betting public or the news media.
The chart below shows where each horse was ranked based on the betting public at Churchill Downs, the amount of news coverage and social media posts on Twitter.
Horse | Order of Finish | Social Media Rank | News Media Rank | Track Rank | Final Odds |
| Country House | 1 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 65-1 |
| Code of Honor | 2 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 14-1 |
| Cumulative rank of top 2 finishers | 15 | 27 | 24 | ||
| Tacitus | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5-1 |
| Cumulative rank of top 3 finishers | 17 | 32 | 27 | ||
| Improbable | 4 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4-1 |
| Cumulative rank of top 4 finishers | 24 | 35 | 28 | ||
| Game Winner | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 6-1 |
| Cumulative rank of top 5 finishers | 27 | 36 | 32 | ||
| Master Fencer | 6 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 58-1 |
| Cumulative rank of top 6 finishers | 39 | 53 | 49 | ||
| War of Will | 7 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 16-1 |
| Cumulative rank of top 7 finishers | 48 | 61 | 56 | ||
| Plus Que Parfait | 8 | 13 | 18 | 16 | 57-1 |
| Cumulative rank of top 8 finishers | 61 | 79 | 72 | ||
| Win Win Win | 9 | 1 | 12 | 7 | 16-1 |
| Cumulative rank of top 9 finishers | 62 | 91 | 79 | ||
| Cutting Humor | 10 | 19 | 6 | 11 | 24 |
| Cumulative rank of top 10 finishers | 81 | 97 | 90 |
Last year, Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings based on tweets was also the best at predicting the top finishers. See chart below. Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings
| Horse | 2018 Finish | Twitter Rank | Betting Public |
| Justify | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Good Magic | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Audible | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| Cumulative rank | 7 | 11 |
So, how is Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings calculated? On the social media side, it takes the total number of tweets that mention each horse over the past seven days. Using a social media monitoring service, Crimson Hexagon, the tweets are rated as either neutral, positive or negative. Positive tweets help boost a horse’s ranking.
A similar method is used to create the ranking system based on news stories. Using data provided by Meltwater, a media-intelligence service, a simple count of news stories about each horse is tabulated. Meltwater’s algorithm ranks the stories as either neutral, positive or negative. Again, positive stories help boost the overall ranking of a horse.
While we don’t advocate this as a betting tool, it seems to show that those who tweet know what they are talking about.
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